What does the data mean to the market?
Mexico's central bank vote on where to set the countries interest rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Astonishing move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPU0x
August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTgtMTUlMjAxODowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RNWE47cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 4
Today's trade plan
I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradeable move.
Tradable pairs
USDMXN
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.